The Albany Gazette - US hiring better than expected despite Trump uncertainty

Since returning to office in January, Trump has looked to slash the number of federal employees, and embarked on a trade war that many economists warn is likely to cool growth and push up inflation.

With Trump's tariff plans still in their early stages, their effect has not filtered through into hiring: The world's largest economy added 177,000 jobs last month, down slightly from a revised 185,000 in March, the Department of Labor said in a statement.

However, job creation was still well above the market consensus of 130,000, according to Briefing.com, and remained slightly above the average monthly gain over the past 12 months.

The unemployment rate stayed at 4.2 percent, in line with expectations.

US financial markets opened higher on the news, with all three major Wall Street indexes in the green in early trading.

"Markets breathed a sigh of relief this morning as the jobs data came in better than expected," Northlight Asset Management chief investment officer Chris Zaccarelli wrote in a note to clients.

"While recession fears are still simmering on the back burner, the buy-the-dip dynamic can continue -- at least until the tariff pause runs out," he added, referring to Trump's recent decision to pause higher levies on dozens of trading partners until July to allow for trade talks.

- 'Just getting started' -

Trump took to his Truth Social account after the data was published to talk up the "strong" employment figures.

"Just like I said, and we're only in a TRANSITION STAGE, just getting started!!!" the US president wrote.

"NO INFLATION, THE FED SHOULD LOWER ITS RATE!!!" added Trump, who has been outspoken in his calls for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.

The independent central bank has kept its key lending rate at between 4.25 and 4.50 percent for months, as it looks to bring inflation from its current elevated levels to its long-term target of two percent while keeping one eye firmly fixed on the unemployment rate.

Financial markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to extend its rate cut pause next week, according to data from CME Group.

- 'Nothing to complain about' -

Sectors that saw job gains last month included health care, transportation and warehousing, financial activities, and social assistance, the Labor Department said.

But federal government employment declined by 9,000 in April, bringing the total decline in the number of government employees since January to 26,000.

The Trump administration is facing legal action after attempting to lay off tens of thousands of federal workers as part of an aggressive cost-cutting drive.

Average hourly earnings grew 0.2 percent to $36.06 in April, the Labor Department said Friday.

"There is nothing to complain about here," High Frequency Economics chief economist Carl Weinberg wrote in a note to clients. "You cannot find any evidence of a nascent recession in these figures."

While traders may breathe easier today, many analysts have stressed that it is still early days for the new administration, and warned they still expect tariffs to cool job creation in the future.

"It will be extraordinary if employment is unscathed this year by the jump in tariffs on imports, the drop in asset prices and the extreme economic policy uncertainty," economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics wrote in an investor note published on Monday.

These factors are likely "causing many businesses to defer non-essential spending," they added, noting that they had not yet seen any significant changes in the payroll data they track.

(K.Jones--TAG)