The Albany Gazette - US consumer inflation cools, but less than expected in January

The closely watched Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.1 percent from a year ago last month, down from 3.4 percent in December, the Department of Labor said on Tuesday.

The figure was also above a MarketWatch median forecast of 2.9 percent.

A measure stripping out volatile food and energy costs held steady too despite expectations that it would ease further, adding to signals that the path to lowering inflation is a gradual and bumpy one.

"Core" CPI rose 3.9 percent from a year ago, the same as in December, said the Labor Department report.

After years of relatively low interest rates, the US Federal Reserve rapidly hiked the benchmark lending rate in 2022 to quell an inflation surge.

The central bank is now holding rates at the highest level in more than two decades, with the goal of bringing inflation back to two percent over the longer haul.

CPI readings have fallen from a 9.1 percent peak in June 2022, and progress towards two percent is good news for policymakers -- as is the economy's apparent resilience as inflation cools.

But the Biden administration is struggling to convince voters that price pressures are easing, given that inflation is decelerating and this does not always translate to an outright drop in prices.

Congressman Brendan Boyle, top Democrat on the House Budget Committee, said in a statement: "Once again, today's CPI data shows inflation has fallen sharply from its peak."

He stressed that average wage increases are outpacing inflation as well.

- Food prices bite -

"Breaking the three percent level is proving tougher than expected," said Navy Federal Credit Union corporate economist Robert Frick, referring to the headline CPI figure.

From December to January, overall CPI inflation ticked up 0.3 percent, an acceleration from the November to December figure, said the Labor Department.

"The index for shelter continued to rise in January, increasing 0.6 percent and contributing over two thirds of the monthly all items increase," the department added.

The food index also increased over the month, even as energy costs slumped due to lower gas costs.

"The drop in core inflation virtually ground to a halt last month, mainly because of shelter prices," Frick said.

"Other service costs remain stubbornly strong, while the food price increases are particularly painful," he added.

But Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics said he does not see the surprise leap in owners' equivalent rent persisting.

He expects core inflation to continue easing, adding that "the numbers don't change the big picture at all."

- Rate cuts 'not imminent' -

"The latest data, which show a re-acceleration -– especially in the three- and six-month annualized readings –- support the Fed's view that rate cuts are not imminent," said Rubeela Farooqi, chief US economist at High Frequency Economics.

"Officials are likely to remain patient as they approach future policy decisions," she added in a note.

The report is likely to "spark a wave of inflation pessimism," EY Chief Economist Gregory Daco said in a note.

But he added that several factors "should still form the perfect mix for disinflation through 2024."

These include a pullback in consumer demand growth, declining rent inflation and moderating wage growth.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell "has indicated the Fed wants to see a continued streak of low inflation readings before easing policy," Nationwide financial market economist Oren Klachkin told AFP.

(E.Taylor--TAG)