The Albany Gazette - Oil prices jump, stocks drop on Mideast ceasefire doubts

Equity markets across the globe had soared and crude futures plunged Wednesday after US President Donald Trump announced the two-week halt in the Middle East war, and Iran said it would reopen the waterway transporting one-fifth of the world's oil and gas.

But the ceasefire has been placed in doubt, largely by Israel's ongoing attacks against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The main US oil contract, West Texas Intermediate, rebounded five percent to reach almost $100 a barrel as international calls mounted for the ceasefire to be extended after a massive wave of Israeli strikes on Lebanon killed more than 200 people.

There had been conflicting diplomatic signals about whether the fighting in Lebanon was included in the US-Iran truce -- Washington said that it was not and Israel made it clear that it has no intention of holding off.

"Oil prices will likely remain elevated and choppy until a more permanent agreement is struck between all parties," said Aarin Chiekrie, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

With concerns spreading over the fragile truce, the dollar recovered some lost ground thanks to its safe-haven status.

"Even if the ceasefire holds it will take time for energy exports from the region to return to more normalised levels, so there will be an impact on growth and inflation that is still difficult to ascertain," said Anthony Kettle at RBC BlueBay Asset Management.

"It should also be noted that there has been significant damage to infrastructure in some major energy exporters," he said.

Hezbollah said Thursday that it had fired rockets towards Israel in response to its "violation", while UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that Israel's strikes on Lebanon posed a "grave risk" to the truce.

Europe's main stock markets were in the red in midday deals following losses across much of Asia.

"While progress towards a more permanent resolution in the Middle East will dominate short-term market moves, it's earning power that drives stock prices in the long term," Chiekrie said ahead of the first-quarter earnings season.

Some companies have already begun alerting markets to the impact of the war on their earnings for the January-March period, with the conflict having started on February 28.

The most widely traded oil contracts had tumbled by around 15 percent Wednesday to around $95 a barrel, after more than a month of conflict that killed thousands of people and hammered global markets.

- Key figures at around 1100 GMT -

Brent North Sea Crude: UP 4.0 percent at $98.57 a barrel

West Texas Intermediate: UP 5.5 percent at $99.59 a barrel

London - FTSE 100: DOWN 0.3 percent at 10,575.51 points

Paris - CAC 40: DOWN 0.9 percent at 8,191.61

Frankfurt - DAX: DOWN 1.3 percent at 23,768.55

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.7 percent at 55,895.32 (close)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.5 percent at 25,752.40 (close)

Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.7 percent at 3,966.17 (close)

Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1672 from $1.1667 on Wednesday

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3400 from $1.3405

Dollar/yen: UP at 159.07 yen from 158.35 yen

Euro/pound: DOWN at 87.12 pence from 87.22 pence

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(C.Young--TAG)