The Albany Gazette - Oil stays above $100, stocks slide tracking Mideast war

With the conflict heading towards its third week, equity markets fell further amid investor worries about an extended crisis that could fan inflation and hammer the global economy.

The price of Brent crude, the benchmark international oil contract, dipped below $100 during the day, sending equities briefly higher.

But stocks slid back into the red as Brent climbed back above the $100 mark.

"Crude oil is continuing to dictate direction for markets as we head towards the end of a volatile week... the pressure remains with no end in sight in the Middle East conflict," said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with Forex.com.

"Traders are trying to figure out what a fair value for crude oil is right now, given the big release of emergency oil reserves, and the temporary relaxation of sanctions on Russian oil sales that's already at sea," he added.

Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz -- through which a fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas passes -- has sent energy prices soaring.

That in turn is causing worries of rising prices rippling through the economy.

"Fears of a burgeoning energy crisis remain front and centre for investors," noted Joshua Mahony, chief market analyst at Scope Markets.

"Inflationary fears are particularly prevalent with each day that passes," Mahony added.

Major central banks, which prior to the war's outbreak were heavily forecast to keep cutting interest rates, are now widely expected next week to freeze borrowing costs or even hike them to keep a lid on inflation.

An unprecedented seven central banks are due to hold meetings on interest rates next week.

Investors also digested updated US economic growth data for the fourth quarter, which was revised down to 0.7 percent from an initial reading of 1.4 percent and estimates of 2.8 percent.

And delayed data showed the US Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge had dipped to 2.8 percent in January.

This is still higher than the Fed's two-percent inflation target and before energy prices have shot higher.

"The Fed is now looking at an environment where inflation remains sticky and will soon get an energy-fuelled boost, while GDP growth and the labour market continue to lose momentum," said eToro US Investment Analyst, Bret Kenwell.

On foreign exchange markets, the dollar held gains against major rivals owing to its safe-haven status and expectations that US interest rates will remain elevated longer than expected.

Next week's "interest-rate meetings at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England -- and those of several of their global counterparts -- come at a delicate time", said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

"Markets will be watching closely for any signals on how they plan to deal with surging oil and gas prices and whether they see it as a short-term bump to look through, or a development that has significantly altered the prospects for inflation and interest rates."

- Key figures at around 1630 GMT -

Brent North Sea Crude: UP 1.6 percent at $102.03 per barrel

West Texas Intermediate: UP 1.6 percent at $97.30 per barrel

New York - Dow: UP less than 0.1 percent at 46,711.66 points

New York - S&P 500: DOWN 0.3 percent at 6,655.56

New York - Nasdaq Composite: DOWN 0.6 percent at 22,171.59

London - FTSE 100: DOWN 0.4 percent at 10,261.15 (close)

Paris - CAC 40: DOWN 0.9 percent at 7,911.53 (close)

Frankfurt - DAX: DOWN 0.6 percent at 23,447.29 (close)

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.2 percent at 53,819.61 (close)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.0 percent at 25,465.60 (close)

Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.8 percent at 4,095.45 (close)

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1442 from $1.1514 on Thursday

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3239 from $1.3346

Dollar/yen: UP at 159.59 yen from 159.39 yen

Euro/pound: UP at 86.43 pence from 86.27 pence

burs-rl/jj

(T.Brown--TAG)