The Albany Gazette - January Harvard Caps / Harris Poll: Trump Approval Drops 2 Pts. With 57% of Voters Saying ICE And CBP Have Gone too Far

President Donald Trump's approval rating is at 45%, down 2 points from December with a small decline across each policy area. Trump's job approval is highest on his response to anti-ICE protest in Minneapolis (51%) and fighting crime in America's cities (47%), and lowest on handling inflation (39%) and tariffs and trade policy (39%). This month's poll also covered public opinion on immigration policy, Minnesota, the economy, political factions, Venezuela, Greenland and NATO, the Israel-Hamas conflict, Iran, and the war in Ukraine. Download the key results here.

"President Trump's ratings are slowing declining with Americans seeing the economy sagging and inflation raging, even though economic statistics show the opposite," said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. "On immigration, the public supports removing criminal aliens but believe that ICE has gone too far and is randomly picking up migrants, a policy they do not support. Given these two trends, Republicans are now facing a tough midterm election."

IMMIGRATION INCHES INTO VOTERS' TOP TWO CONCERNS ALONGSIDE THE ECONOMY

49% of voters say the U.S. economy is strong (+2, Dec. 2025).

The Republican Party approval rating is at 44% (-2), while the Democratic Party approval rating is at 44% (+3). Congressional approval is at 32% (-3).

Inflation and immigration are the nation's top two most important issues today, according to American voters. 33% of voters say inflation is the most important issue (-3, Dec. 2025), and 29% of voters say immigration (+3).

Among key American institutions and federal agencies, voters have the highest net favorable view of the U.S. Military (+58 net favorable) and the police (+35) and the least favorable view of ICE (-16).

DEMOCRATS HAVE EDGE IF CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS WERE HELD TODAY

74% of voters say they will definitely or probably vote in the 2026 Congressional midterm elections (Definitely: Democrats: 69%; Republicans: 66%; Independents: 43%).

54% of voters say they would vote for a Democrat if the congressional election was held today, an 8-pt. lead over Republicans. The lead narrows to 4 pts. among likely voters.

MOST TRUMP POLICIES CONTINUE TO BE POPULAR AS VOTERS CREDIT HIS ACCOMPLISHMENTS IN THE PAST YEAR

55% of voters say Trump's policies have been consistent with campaign promises, and 54% say he has accomplished a lot in his first year.

49% of voters, a plurality, say Trump's policies thus far have set America on a worse path. 49% say Trump is doing a better job than Biden (-4).

15 of 22 key Trump policies continue to see majority support. His most popular policies are lowering prescription drug prices (83% support), deporting illegal immigrants who have committed crimes (73%), eliminating fraud in government expenditures (70%), and capping credit card interest rates at 10% for one year (69%).

Trump's least popular policies include hiring an additional 20,000 border patrol and ICE agents to conduct immigration raids (43%), Medicaid cost cuts (44%), and withdrawing from international organizations (46%).

55% of voters say Trump is making bad deals on behalf of the country (+4).

VOTERS BELIEVE ICE AND CBP SHOULD FOCUS ON IMMIGRANTS WHO HAVE COMMITTED CRIMES

55% of voters disapprove of how immigration enforcement agencies like ICE and Border Patrol (CBP) are enforcing laws in U.S. cities, with 40% strongly disapproving. 57% say ICE and CBP have gone too far.

67% of voters say local officials should cooperate with federal immigration authorities on deporting illegal immigrants who have committed crimes.

60% of voters believe Democratic officials have been encouraging resistance to ICE, with 57% opposing elected officials who do so.

The majority of voters say ICE should not be allowed to conduct raids at schools or daycare (72%), on the street without a warrant (68%), and at workplaces (56%). 56% of voters believe ICE has been taking people randomly off the street (Democrats: 76%; Republicans: 37%; Independents: 57%).

44% of voters, a plurality, say ICE officers should only go after individuals who have committed crimes rather than performing sweeps of places with many illegal immigrants (Democrats: 58%; Republicans: 26%; Independents: 50%).

Voters across political parties strongly support deporting illegal and legal immigrants who have committed a serious crime but are split on deporting other undocumented immigrants who do not have criminal records and generally do not support deportations of those who have lived in the U.S. for years, arrived as a child, or committed a minor infraction.

MAJORITY BELIEVE ICE AND CBP HAVE GONE TOO FAR IN MINNEAPOLIS; WANT AGENTS TO WEAR BODY CAMERAS AND IDENTIFY THEMSELVES

58% of voters say ICE and CBP have been using too much force in Minneapolis.

56% say ICE is not justified in arresting U.S. citizens it believes are interfering with enforcement efforts. 62% say it is violating American civil liberties.

62% of voters believe ICE was too quick to escalate situations leading to the shootings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti.

59% of voters, including a majority across political parties, believe the Trump administration is doubling down on its actions in Minneapolis rather than de-escalating and changing course.

55% of voters support Congressional Republicans withholding funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in the upcoming government funding bill, but 53% do not support Democrats withholding votes and triggering another government shutdown.

80% of voters say ICE and CBP should be required to identify themselves when conducting enforcement activities, and 86% say agents should wear body cameras, including a strong majority across political parties.

55% of voters say ICE incidents should be investigated by federal agencies like the FBI and DHS rather than local authorities.

MORE VOTERS ATTRIBUTE ECONOMY TO TRUMP OVER BIDEN

63% of voters say the current state of the economy is mostly due to the Trump administration rather than Biden (+11). 53% say it is worse than it was when Biden was president.

56% of voters say the economy is shrinking, and 66% say inflation is above 3% (-5), including a majority across political parties.

52% of voters, a strong plurality across political parties, say the economy was last "good" in 2020 before the pandemic (+3).

60% of voters favor economic policies of reduced government spending, lower taxes, tougher trade deals, lower prescription drug costs, and a closed border (Democrats: 50%; Republicans: 68%; Independents: 62%).

VOTERS WANT NEXT PRESIDENT TO GOVERN FROM THE CENTER RIGHT

58% of voters say the Republican Party is run by far-right politicians, while 52% say the Democratic Party is run by moderates.

55% of voters say Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Mayor Zohran Mamdani would be a danger to the country if elected to higher office. 62% say the same about Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens.

44%, a plurality, believe Trump governs from the far right. 44% want their next president to govern from the center right.

Democrats favor Kamala Harris (39%) followed by Gavin Newsom (30%) as their next candidate for President, while Republicans overwhelmingly favor J.D. Vance (53%) as their next presidential candidate.

DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION IN VENEZUELA SHOULD BE KEY PRIORITY FOR TRUMP ADMINISTRATION

54% of voters approve of the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro (Democrats: 40%; Republicans: 75%; Independents: 46%), with 72% believing he led a dictatorship.

59% of voters say it was in the national interest of the U.S. to remove Maduro from office (-7), but voters are split on whether it violated the U.S. Constitution and international law.

64% of voters believe pushing Venezuela towards a democratic transition should be a key priority for the Trump administration, including a majority across political parties.

57% of voters say the U.S. should try to fix the Venezuelan oil industry so that it is profitable for the Venezuelan people. 53% say the U.S. is not entitled to any oil proceeds.

61% of voters say the U.S. should take a more aggressive stand against narco trafficking dictators around the world. 56% are not worried about the U.S. being drawn into a war with Venezuelan troops.

VOTERS PRIORITIZE NATO OVER ACQUIRING GREENLAND BUT SUPPORT TRUMP'S SENTIMENT OF RESETTING U.S.-EUROPEAN RELATIONSHIPS

60% of voters say the U.S. should not try to obtain Greenland (Democrats: 78%; Republicans: 39%; Independents: 65%).

62% of voters believe the U.S. should demand a vote for Greenland residents to decide if they want to remain part of Denmark or become a U.S. territory.

53% of voters say Trump's statements on Greenland are an unnecessary escalation with allies and risk unraveling NATO. 69% say maintaining NATO is more important for U.S. security than acquiring strategic territory.

62% of voters support Trump resetting U.S.-European relationships, with 56% believing European nations are failing to spend adequately on their defense.

59% of voters interpret "America First" as limiting foreign interventions, including a majority across political parties. 53% support pulling back from international organizations and focusing on national interests.

BOARD OF PEACE SEES SUPPORT; VOTERS WANT PALESTINIAN INVOLVEMENT IN RECONSTRUCTION OF GAZA

72% of voters continue to support Israel over Hamas.

67% of voters support Trump's deal to secure the safe return of Israeli hostages and end hostilities in Gaza.

55% of voters support Trump launching the Board of Peace to fundraise for and oversee the reconstruction of Gaza. Voters are split on whether successful reconstruction requires Israel's involvement, while 58% of voters say it requires Palestinian involvement.

57% of voters see Israel's criticism of the Board of Peace as a symptom of politics rather than a serious rift between Trump and Israel.

65% of voters believe Hamas is rearming, including a majority across political parties (-3), despite 77% saying Hamas disarming should be a deal requirement. 48% of voters, a plurality, say Arab government should be responsible for ensuring Hamas disarms.